What did we learn from the 2015 earthquake?
Ten years ago, an earthquake devastated Nepal. Ten years on, we've learned nothing.
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening from Kathmandu. This is Issue 171 of KALAM Weekly, the only newsletter you need to keep updated with everything happening in Nepal.
Since we had no new paid subscribers this week, let’s jump right into the newsletter:
Foreign Minister asks Israel to secure release of Bipin Joshi
Oil exploration in Western Nepal moves forward
Oli under criticism at UML central committee meet
Rabi Lamichhane out on bail after nearly three months in custody
New Kalam services on offer
Recommendations
The deep dive: What did we learn from the 2015 earthquake?
Foreign Minister asks Israel to secure release of Bipin Joshi
On Monday, January 6, the New York Times reported that Hamas had approved a list of 34 hostages that it could potentially release if a ceasefire and Gaza withdrawal deal was reached with Israel. According to the NYT, the list includes “10 women, five of them soldiers; 11 older male hostages aged between 50 and 85; two young children who Hamas previously said had been killed in an Israeli airstrike, but whose deaths have not been confirmed by the Israeli authorities; and other male hostages whose release Israel considers urgent.” It does not seem that the list includes any foreigners.
Nevertheless, on Wednesday, January 8, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba asked the new Israeli ambassador to Nepal, Shmulik Arie Bass, to help secure the release of Bipin Joshi, the Nepali student who was taken hostage by Hamas in the initial October 7, 2023 attack that set off the current Israel-Hamas conflict. Joshi’s whereabouts and status remain unknown, with many believing he might already have been killed, either by Hamas or by Israeli forces themselves. Israel claims that Hamas has executed hostages in the past, but Israel itself has been responsible for the deaths of hostages.
Joshi’s family has been living in limbo, not knowing whether their son is alive or dead. Any family would hold on to hope, however meager, that their child is still alive. Nepal has no diplomatic relations with Hamas, so it is up to Israel to either help secure Joshi’s release or conclusively declare if he is no longer among the living. Nepal has no stake in the Israel-Hamas conflict, but its consistent position in favor of Palestine at the United Nations might have angered the Israelis. Hamas set off the current conflict by carrying out a heinous attack on October 7, but Israel’s response has been nothing short of genocidal. All of Gaza — women, children, and the elderly — are being collectively punished. Good friends call out each others’ genocidal behavior.
I commend Foreign Minister Deuba, though, for consistently lobbying for Joshi’s release. Unlike past foreign ministers, she seems to have made Joshi a priority. Here’s hoping that Joshi will be found alive and well.
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Oil exploration in Western Nepal moves forward
On Wednesday, January 8, a Chinese team extracted rock samples containing oil reserves from about 4,000 meters under Dailekh district in western Nepal. These rock samples, including shale and sandstone, will be tested in China. Then, more tests will be conducted to ascertain whether the petroleum available in Dailekh can be used as fuel. This entire process will take four to six months, by the end of which Nepal might have petroleum reserves ripe for use and export.
The history of oil exploration in Nepal dates back to the 70s when the World Bank funded an airborne magnetic survey of the Terai led by the Department of Mines and Geology. In 1982, a dedicated Petroleum Exploration Promotion Project was formed at the department to oversee all oil exploration projects in Nepal. In 1985, the Terai was divided into 10 blocks of around 5000 sq km each, and each block was auctioned to various international companies for exploration. Not much came of these explorations, with each company exiting Nepal after falling victim to the vagaries of Nepal’s political instability and bureaucratic red tape.
In 2016, during his visit to China, KP Sharma Oli promised the Chinese survey rights in Dailekh, which does not fall under the 10 Terai blocks initially identified for exploration. The following year, in 2017, Nepal and China entered into a formal agreement to dig for oil, with China bearing all costs. Two years later, in 2019, the China Geological Survey conducted a technical study of Dailekh and identified areas that could hold large quantities of petroleum. But it was only last year, in May 2024, that drilling officially began.
Looking for oil is a complicated issue in today’s world. Vast oil reserves have brought unfettered wealth to countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, and northern Europe, but times have changed, and fossil fuels are no longer in vogue. The world is shifting from petroleum to more sustainable, green energy sources. But we are not completely independent of oil either, and we likely will not be for the next few decades. Any oil reserves that Nepal can access will allow us to wean ourselves off our dependence on India for fuel imports. Currently, all of Nepal’s fuel comes in from the southern border, giving India an ungodly amount of leverage over Nepal. We saw how India used this leverage in 2015 when a blockade crippled life across the country.
Given the investment in exploration and surveying, if the oil in Dailekh is of a certain quality, China will no doubt claim first rights on extraction. Nepal is not treaty-bound to offer China rights to the extraction, but it will face pressure to do so. And India is not going to take this lying down. But let’s not jump the gun just yet. There’s no telling if the oil in Dailekh is even fit to be refined and used as fuel. Let’s wait and see what the survey results bring about.
Oli under criticism at UML central committee meet
This past week, the ruling CPN-UML party held a three-day central committee meeting that evaluated party functioning in the past year. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, also the chair of the UML, was heavily criticized by his party members for a slew of controversial decisions, including expelling senior politician Bhim Rawal from the party and suspending two others. Rawal, Binda Pandey, and Usha Kiran Timilsina were disciplined for speaking out publicly against Oli’s unilateral decision to accept land worth millions from controversial businessman Min Bahadur Gurung, owner of the Bhat-bhateni supermarket chain. Central committee members raised the same issue at the meeting and asked Oli to return the land, saying his acceptance had tarnished the party’s image.
Oli was unperturbed by the criticism. Recently, Oli has turned the UML party into a one-man show, centralizing its functioning around himself. He has increasingly identified the UML with his own image, plastering his face on banners and posters and turning election sloganeering into an anthem about himself. Oli does not see any serious challengers to his dominance within the party and thus does not consider any criticism worth addressing. “The UML is Oli, and Oli is the UML” seems to be the party line.
However, some party members are attempting to challenge Oli’s dominance by playing up the expected return of Bidhya Devi Bhandari to the UML. Bhandari gave up membership in the UML when she became President of Nepal in 2015, but there are rumors that she wants to return to party politics. Bhandari, the widow of UML icon Madan Bhandari, is a popular figure in the UML and is seen as the one person who could challenge Oli for party leadership. Bhandari and Oli have worked closely, even when the former was supposed to be a non-partisan head of state. She supported many of Oli’s controversial decisions, including twice dissolving the House of Representatives, and also sat on a citizenship amendment bill that both houses of Parliament had twice endorsed despite being required by the constitution to pass it. Read more about Bidhya Bhandari in this old newsletter:
After the meeting, Oli also ruled out the possibility of amending the constitution. The UML and the Nepali Congress had pledged to amend the constitution when they took over from Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists in July 2024. The two parties reaffirmed their vow in September last year, promising broad consultations with civil society and other political parties to amend the constitution. Madhesis, Indigenous groups, and women all have issues with the 2015 constitution, which imposes various limits on them. Oli reasoned that since the Upper House, or the National Assembly, is controlled by the opposition Maoists, a constitutional amendment will not go through as it requires a two-thirds majority in both Houses. Oli is correct, but the Congress is miffed at this assessment.
But that’s enough said about the UML and Oli. Let’s move on.
Rabi Lamichhane out on bail after nearly three months in custody
After 84 days in police custody, Rabi Lamichhane, chair of the Rastriya Swatantra Party and former Home Minister, was finally released after posting bail. Lamichhane was accused of fraud, embezzlement, and organized crime in five districts: Kaski, Kathmandu, Rupandehi, Chitwan, and Parsa. The Kaski District Court released him on Thursday after he posted Rs 6.5 million bail.
But Lamichhane’s woes are just beginning. Although one court released him on bail, he faces hearings in four other courts, and all have the right to send him back to judicial custody if necessary. Lamichhane remains suspended as a Member of Parliament while his criminal case continues. If he is acquitted, he will be reinstated, but if he is found guilty, he will lose his position.
Lamichhane’s arrest, custody, and trial have been farcical. Lamichhane might certainly be guilty of fraud and embezzlement, but he has been hounded and publicly humiliated time and again. The allegations against him are not insubstantial, but how he has been persecuted gives reason to ask why no one else has received the same treatment. Numerous high-profile politicians have had criminal cases lodged against them. Some are even accused of murder and yet remain free men with their cases postponed time and again by the courts. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli himself has been implicated in the Giribandhu land grab scam, but he hasn’t even been investigated. This shows that if the ruling elites deem it necessary, they can mobilize the entire government apparatus against one man. Unfortunately, the traditional political parties — Congress, UML, and Maoists — all protect each other. Lamichhane, as an outsider, challenged their dominance and thus ended up squarely in their iron sights.
Whether Lamichhane is found guilty or not, his party needs to do some deep soul-searching. The RSP needs to determine how critical Lamichhane is to the party. If he is sent to jail, will that spell the end of the party, or will it limp on without its most charismatic figure? All that remains to be seen.
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Recommendations
Newsletter: Unpacking the nuances: Oli's visit, Nepal's portrayal and Chinese media, Aneka Rebecca Rajbhandari, The Araniko Project
Article: The brief, woeful life of Sachin Pariyar, Dinesh Kafle, The Kathmandu Post
The deep dive: What did we learn from the 2015 earthquake?
The aftermath of the 2015 earthquake. (Image: AP)
Early January 7, at around 6.50 am, an earthquake shook central and northern Nepal. The quake, which had its epicenter in Dinggye County in Tibet, killed at least 126 people there and injured nearly a dozen in Nepal. The earthquake was initially placed at a magnitude of 5.3 but was later revised to 6.8.
For many in Nepal, the quake was a harsh reminder of what happened ten years ago in 2015. In April 2015, an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude struck Nepal, killing thousands in just under a minute. A few weeks later, an aftershock of 7.3 magnitude struck again, killing 200. Nepal was devastated, with thousands of homes destroyed and tens of thousands injured. Hundreds of years of cultural heritage was reduced to rubble in seconds. Survivors trawled through the depths of their ruined homes for whatever they could salvage. Those with homes standing did not dare enter lest an aftershock bring the rickety structure crumbling down. In the initial days, aftershocks occurred every 15-20 minutes, and even weeks later, there were aftershocks every single day. Nepal’s National Seismological Center recorded 459 aftershocks of magnitude four or higher up until a year later.
I remember those initial days well. Kathmandu was in chaos as the world fell to ruins around us. Every aftershock sent us scrambling for whatever open space we could find. Each minute inside was time borrowed. At night, we slept as a community under a neighbor’s party tent as it rained pitilessly outside. It was hellish, being woken in the middle of the night by jolts and running out into the rain. Years later, when I was in Brussels, the house I was living in would shake whenever a large truck went by. Even while asleep, I would wake to find myself at the door whenever the building rattled. The mind had moved on, but the body remembered.
We all carry the earthquake with us. Not just in memory but in trauma. We share a national affliction — post-traumatic stress from the 2015 earthquakes. That is why, when the ground shook for longer than usual on Tuesday, that April morning ten years ago came rushing back. This is anniversary year, and this is the year we mark all that we have or have not learned from the devastation of 2015.
So what have we learned? When you look around Kathmandu, not much, it would seem. Buildings taller than ever before have sprung up across the city. New hotels, apartment buildings, and office spaces are all massive blocks of brick and concrete with glass facades. The builders say that these buildings are resistant to earthquakes, but given how lax Kathmandu is at enforcing its building code, I somehow doubt they will remain standing should another 7.8 earthquake strike. Surprisingly, Nepalis flock to these new buildings, buying up penthouse apartments a dozen stories up for millions of rupees. Either they’ve forgotten 2015, or they just don’t care.
In 2015, when we ran out of our homes, we realized acutely the importance of space. We lamented the loss of our public spaces, our open spaces and hoped that going forward, Kathmandu would learn that spaces like these can be lifesavers. But no, we didn’t take that lesson to heart either. Public spaces are shrinking, privatized, and sold to the highest bidders to build more concrete monstrosities. Tundikhel, the largest open space in Kathmandu, continues to be hemmed in on all sides. Smaller community parks have been built but they aren’t nearly large enough to house a mass of people should a disaster strike.
In the aftermath of 2015, we saw how the survivors, especially the poor and marginalized, continued to suffer. Bureaucracy delayed and then limited relief. Donations dried up, and jobs did not materialize. Many lived in temporary shelters made out of corrugated iron with plastic tarps for doors for years. Homes were rebuilt halfway because the subsequent tranches of relief never arrived. The government was so busy trying to figure out who was only pretending to be victims that it failed to help the actual victims. But Nepalis carried on, like they always do. And the outside world looked upon them and said, wow, what a resilient people.
But again, we learned nothing. Over eight years later, in 2023, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake struck Jajarkot in west Nepal, killing 153 people and injuring over 350. Hundreds of homes were lost, and thousands became homeless. Yet, in the aftermath, 2015 recurred. Humanitarian agencies and donor countries provided temporary relief, but long-term governmental relief for reconstruction was once again delayed, forcing the victims to spend more than two years in makeshift shelters. Two bitterly cold winters have passed since then, and many remain homeless. Again, the reason is the same — the government does not want anyone to “take advantage.” If that comes at the suffering of actual victims, so be it. There is already news that quake survivors in Rukum West have begun rebuilding their homes, disregarding building codes, as money from the government for reconstruction never materialized.
Seismologists have long warned that West Nepal is due for a large earthquake, but those warnings have increased in frequency lately. Since mid-December, the region has suffered more than 10 earthquakes of magnitude four and above. Seismic activity in the region is increasing, say seismologists. If a large earthquake strikes West Nepal, it will devastate the region, which is already poor, marginalized, and disenfranchised. If Tuesday's earthquake is any indication, Kathmandu and the rest of Nepal will not go unscathed, either. And when the next earthquake strikes, will we have learned anything? Will we be better prepared? Or are we still the fatalists Dor Bahadur Bista accused us of being? Je huncha, huncha. c’est la vie. Whatever will be, will be.
That’s all for this week. I will be back next Friday, in your emails, for the next edition of KALAM Weekly.
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