The Trump presidency from a Nepali perspective

What could happen in the next four years and how will Nepalis be affected?

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening from Kathmandu. This is Issue 173 of KALAM Weekly, the only newsletter you need to keep updated with everything happening in Nepal.

A big thank you to my four new paid supporters: Professor Sienna Craig, Meghan Nalbo, Utsab Shrestha, and an anonymous supporter. Thank you so much for your support. A hearty welcome also to all my new readers. I hope you will enjoy this newsletter and consider sharing it with others and/or pledging a paid subscription. More details below.

Now, without further ado, let’s get to the news.

In this newsletter:

• An unusually warm winter

• Kathmandu mayor directs Chinese New Year celebrations to the Ring Road

• Sagarmatha Sambaad to be held in May

• Recommendations

• The deep dive: The Trump presidency from a Nepali perspective

An unusually warm winter

It is winter here in Kathmandu, but it can get unseasonably warm during the day, so warm that a half hour in the sun can have you sweating. Then, come mornings and nights, it gets cold again. According to the Meteorological Forecasting Division, both minimum and maximum temperatures have remained above average this winter. While the division says this is normal and not out of the ordinary, it acknowledged that average temperatures have risen in the past few years. Winter in Nepal is also usually accompanied by winter rains, which bring down the temperature, but this year, there has been almost no winter rain. According to The Kathmandu Post, Nepal has received only 8.8 percent of average rainfall this winter.

This is both good and bad. Warmer winters mean no cold waves in the Tarai. A cold wave is a sudden drop in temperature due to an influx of a cold wind. Cold waves are usually preceded by dense fog. Every year, dozens of residents in the Madhes, usually the poor who cannot afford proper insulation, die from these cold waves. This year, there have been no deaths so far. While this is the good, there is also the bad. A warm and dry winter means winter crops do not receive the necessary rainfall and leave the ground hot and dry, ripe for the winter forest fires that Nepal is now witnessing every year. Madhukar Upadhya, a watershed scientist, writes, “Though it contributes only about 20 percent of the total annual precipitation, winter precipitation is vital in our water budget to support winter crops, maintain grasslands, contain wildfires, and, most importantly, deposit snow in the high mountains.”

Although hesitant to attribute these shifts directly to climate change, scientists like Upadhya acknowledge Nepal now sees intense monsoons and dry winters, upsetting generations of established rainfall patterns. Just this past year, we saw how intense monsoons are becoming. Over a hundred people died in floods and landslides triggered by unseasonal heavy rains this past monsoon. Even if we cannot point to climate change as the direct cause of these changing rainfall patterns, authorities must do everything possible to prepare for and deal with these changes. Sadly, Nepali authorities do not seem to acknowledge how extreme things can get in the very near future, impacting the lives of millions of Nepalis.

Kathmandu mayor directs Chinese New Year celebrations to the Ring Road

The Chinese New Year, also known as the Spring Festival, marks the beginning of the Chinese lunisolar calendar, marking the end of winter and heralding the arrival of spring. Celebrations usually last from New Year’s Eve, which falls on January 28 this year, until the Lantern Festival on February 12. The celebrations are marked by red lanterns strung up all over the city streets, along with parades, fireworks, and festivals. It is the biggest holiday for the Chinese people.

The Chinese Embassy in Nepal celebrates the new year with much fanfare. This year, the embassy asked Kathmandu Metropolitan City to allow it to hold new year festivities in Thamel, parts of which have turned into a defacto Chinatown. Thamel’s Jyatha area now has countless Chinese businesses, including shops, restaurants, and hotels. These businesses are primarily operated by Chinese citizens, providing an authentic experience of food and culture for Nepalis and visiting tourists. Kathmandu refused permission, citing difficulties in managing traffic in a dense area like Thamel. Instead, the city directed the Chinese embassy to hold its celebrations on the Ring Road from Kalanki to Maharajgunj, according to Onlinekhabar.

It might seem odd that Kathmandu asked the Chinese to relocate their celebrations from the heart of the tourist district to the city's periphery, but there is an unrivaled pettiness to the city’s recommendation. See, the 8-kilometer stretch of the Ring Road from Kalanki to Maharajgunj is a dustbowl. The area is possibly the dustiest and dirtiest part of Kathmandu, with the Ring Road and its surroundings in disarray. The Chinese were supposed to work on expanding the Ring Road, a vital artery for both Kathmandu and Lalitpur. Work began in 2019, and in Lalitpur, the Ring Road has been expanded into an eight-lane highway, but work is at a standstill in Kathmandu, particularly the aforementioned section. Although Nepali authorities have cleared the area by destroying temporary structures and relocating more permanent ones, no work has begun to expand this 8km stretch. The Nepali Department of Roads blames the Chinese contractors for not starting work, while the Chinese blame Nepali authorities for delaying work through bureaucracy.

Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah has been very displeased by these delays. Last year, he dumped a truckful of dirt outside the premises of the Department of Roads in a symbolic protest of the dust that his constituents are forced to travel through every day. Now, by directing the Chinese New Year celebrations to the Ring Road, Mayor Shah is doing to the Chinese what he did to the Department of Roads. It’s not a very effective or mature path he’s chosen, but it is darkly hilarious that we have a public official, the leader of the country’s capital, who is so petulant and willing to stoop to such lows to make a point. Ultimately, Shah’s decisions are not likely to impact Nepal-China relations but it sends a bad message to a close neighbor that the mayor of Nepal’s capital is willing to weaponize a new year’s celebration to score some political points.

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Sagarmatha Sambaad to be held in May

On Tuesday, January 21, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced that Nepal would host the first edition of the Sagarmatha Sambaad from May 16 to 18. The Sambaad, modeled on the Raisina Dialogue in India, the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, and the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, will invite governmental and non-governmental officials and private sector representatives from all over the world to Kathmandu to deliberate on issues important to Nepal. The first edition will reportedly discuss climate change and climate justice.

Oli had earlier planned the Sambaad for April 2020, but the Covid-19 pandemic put an end to that. Now that he is back in the chief executive’s chair, Oli is bringing back the dialogue in a bid to attract attention from international actors, not just for climate change in Nepal but potentially investment opportunities here, too. Holding such a dialogue would be great for Nepal, provided we can put on a good show free of partisan political interest. An event like the Sagarmatha Sambaad cannot simply be a vehicle for Oli and the UML to push their own agendas; it must bring all other parties on board.

Crucial to ensuring that the event is non-partisan is the organizing body. Who is going to hold the Sambaad? In 2020, the Oli government created a secretariat led by the head of the Policy, Planning, Development Diplomacy and Nepali Diaspora Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Secretariat included representatives from the Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers (OPMCM), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), and the Policy Research Institute (PRI). I assume that is not going to change this time around. The secretariat is unwieldy and composed of various competing interests that might not work well together. In India, the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a think tank, organizes the Raisina Dialogue in partnership with the Minister of External Affairs. The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore is organized by the London-based International Insitute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Both the ORF and IISS are think tanks that operate independently of the host government and are thus not beholden to the whims of the ruling dispensation. It would thus be prudent for the Oli government to allow an independent think tank or organization to host the Sambaad in collaboration with the government-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and Policy Research Institute.

Nepal further wishes to attract “track one” officials to the Sambaad, but May is just six months away. The calendars of high-level governmental and non-governmental officials are usually full months in advance, and if Nepal wishes to attract any of them, work needs to begin immediately. We saw what happened with the Investment Summit last year. In February 2024, Nepal invited billionaires like Jack Ma, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, and Gautam Adani to the Investment Summit held in April. I don’t believe anyone followed up or pursued other avenues besides sending them an invitation letter. As expected, none of them attended. Let’s not have a repeat at the Sagarmatha Sambaad.

I’ll be writing more about the Sambaad once more information becomes publicly available closer to the planned date, so watch this space.

Recommendations

Application: Cut.Katha, a documentary pitching lab that trains women filmmakers to create powerful pitches for their short documentary film projects, is calling for applications from all Nepali filmmakers who identify as women.

Exhibition: Who Are.You, a mixed-media exhibition by KC Subesh and Mukhiya Samridh, Siddhartha Art Galley, January 24 - February 19

Video: Where did Wave Magazine go? Rewind with Boju Bajai

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The deep dive: The Trump presidency from a Nepali perspective

US President Donald Trump signs a slew of executive orders immediately after his inauguration. (Image: Getty)

On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump officially became the 47th President of the United States of America. Immediately, he signed into force over 100 executive orders concerning everything from immigration and federal governance to climate change and global health. While most of the orders were focused on domestic issues, a few are certain to have direct global repercussions. Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement will have dire, far-reaching consequences for global public health and the fight against climate change. Trump had previously pulled out of these instruments during his first term as president, but Biden recommitted the US to both the WHO and the Paris Agreement once he came to office. This time, the WHO withdrawal, which kicks into force a year from now, will go through, as will the Paris Agreement.

In this deep dive, let me examine the next four years of President Donald Trump's tenure as leader of the free world from a Nepali perspective.

Trump’s first term as US president did not have many significant repercussions for Nepal. The Trump administration’s foreign policy was largely focused on India and China, with Nepal consigned to the periphery, which is generally how things go no matter who the president is. Trump, however, did refer to Nepal as ‘Nipple’ and also indirectly called us a “shithole country” while referring to countries whose citizens have Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in the US. Nepal, too, has been on the list of countries whose citizens have TPS in the US since the 2015 earthquake.

Trump has pledged to revoke TPS, especially for countries like Haiti and Venezuela. In September last year, Trump repeated a viral hoax about immigrants from Haiti eating pet cats and dogs in a debate with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. During his first term, the Trump administration had attempted to end TPS for El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua, and Sudan, claiming that the program, which was supposed to be temporary, had turned permanent. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) challenged the move in federal court, which provided a preliminary injunction against the Trump administration and kept the program in place. Trump had left office by the time a final decision could be made. Biden duly reaffirmed his support for TPS when he came into office, and the cancellation was scrapped. Trump now has enough time to scrap TPS if he takes immediate action.

Around 19,000 Nepalis are currently on TPS in the US, which was extended as recently as October last year until June 2025. If the Trump administration decides not to extend the designation in June, these 19,000 Nepalis could lose their TPS and be forced to return to Nepal. I sympathize with these Nepalis, many of whom have built lives and careers in the US in the nine years since 2015. But, TPS was always going to be temporary. It’s in the name itself that the program is temporary. Nepalis should have prepared for the eventuality that the program would end one day, especially since Nepal is not Haiti or Venezuela or Ukraine or Lebanon. Nepal is relatively safe. There are no lasting consequences from the 2015 earthquake, and there is no immediate danger to anyone’s life should they return to Nepal.

Other immigration reforms should not significantly affect Nepalis in the US. Some Nepali immigrants to the US do take illegal routes via South and Central America, but the vast majority are there legally, either on student F1 visas, working H1B visas, permanent residency after living and working there for decades, or naturalized citizenship. There are, however, fears that it might become more difficult for Nepalis to receive visas to the US. Right after his inauguration, Trump signed an executive order titled “Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats,” which pledges “enhanced vetting and screening” for visas. Obtaining visas are thus likely to become more difficult for countries from the Global South, especially the “shithole” countries.

On the foreign policy front, Trump has pledged to end American involvement in foreign wars, especially Ukraine and Palestine. Instead, he has targeted China with tariffs, portending a looming trade war that could escalate if China retaliates. Trump has a good relationship with India’s Narendra Modi and will not likely pursue any punitive action against Indians in the US, despite what his hardline Republican base is calling for. Trump and close associates Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have come out in support of continuing H1B work visas, a majority of which go to Indians. Conservative Republicans, meanwhile, have called to scrap the H1B visa entirely.

With India on his side, Trump could pursue a more muscular foreign policy against China, which would likely have repercussions for Nepal. As a friendly neighbor to both countries, Nepal will need to be even more careful in courting China and Chinese assistance, lest it displease the Indians and the Americans. Already, high-profile visits by US officials tend to follow whenever a similarly high-profile Chinese delegation arrives here. Under the Trump administration, the US, already wary of the increasing Chinese footprint in the region, will most likely take steps to counteract this influence here.

Despite picking a fight with China, Trump has basically handed over global leadership to China by pulling out of the Paris Agreement and pledging increased support for fossil fuels. At a time when the entire world is transitioning to green renewable energy, Trump is taking the US back several decades. China is already a global leader in terms of renewable energy and green technology. As the Global South seeks leadership, technology, and resources to fuel its green transition, it will now not turn to the US, but to China. Already, Chinese-made electric vehicles have taken over Nepali streets. They will only increase in the years to come as more automobile makers move away from fossil fuel-based vehicles and turn to electric vehicles. The US will be left behind as China steps in to lead the world in terms of green energy. Nepal, as a close neighbor, will benefit if it plays its cards right.

But that is a long-term consequence. In the near term, there is just going to be less funding available from US sources for vitally important programs in Nepal. Already, Trump has signed an executive order freezing all foreign aid for 90 days pending a review. Given that the US is often the biggest donor to many of these programs, the blow to funding is likely to be significant. Cuts to foreign aid will affect USAID agriculture, health, electricity, and democracy programs in Nepal. In health, Trump is likely to continue with the “global gag rule,” which prohibits funding for any abortion-related sexual and reproductive health programs. Public health will be affected even more by Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO. The UN health agency supports numerous immunization and public health programs in Nepal. With the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, there is also going to be less funding to combat climate change.

The US is also likely going to reduce its support for sexual and gender minorities across the world, including Nepal, given Trump’s insistence on just “two genders”. The US has been a leader in the gender and sexuality movement with many similar movements across the world taking the lead from what happens in America. The queer community in the US is going to suffer under Trump and conservative movements the world over are going to follow Trump’s example to institute similar policies in their own countries. The conservative backlash against progressives is going to be harsh.

All material concerns aside, the US has been Nepal’s long-term partner in institutionalizing democracy, ensuring human rights for all, supporting green economic growth, and also providing much-needed support for Nepali arts and culture. Countless Nepalis, myself included, studied in the US and learned from American professors, mentors, friends, and colleagues. Even just through American culture and arts, so much of the world has an affinity for the US. Donald Trump threatens America’s position as a global leader on many values that Nepal too adheres to — democracy, freedom of speech, sustainable green growth, and minority rights. With the new Trump administration in place, I’m guessing it won’t be long before the US embassy in Kathmandu takes down that large banner proclaiming “We stand with Ukraine,” and I’m guessing there aren’t going to be any more rainbow flags draping the embassy walls during Pride Month either.

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That’s all for this week. I will be back next Friday, in your emails, for the next edition of KALAM Weekly.

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