KALAM Weekly 151: How many crashes are too many?
Issue 151 • 09 August 2024
It’s August 9, 2024, and you’re reading KALAM Weekly, formerly known as Off the Record.
I’m Pranaya Rana and in this newsletter, we’ll stop, take a deep breath, and dive into one singular issue that defined the past week.
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Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening from KALAM Weekly. I hope the rebrand has not put you off too much. To set your mind further at ease, this week’s newsletter—and the ones that follow—will be exactly like the good old Off the Record newsletters.
Without further ado, let’s get right down to it.
Crisis in Bangladesh
As I’m sure you’re aware, on Monday, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country for India after massive student protests. Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s ‘father of the nation’ Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, was reportedly given just 45 minutes to resign and leave by the Bangladeshi military, according to the Indian media. Hasina left in a military helicopter and is now in Delhi. The military initially seized control but Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has now been appointed interim leader following a discussion between President Mohammed Shahabuddin, military leaders, and student leaders.
There are many sources on the internet that can explain better what led to these dramatic developments. This Al Jazeera report is fairly comprehensive, but let me give you the major beats. On June 5, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh reinstated a quota system for government jobs that had previously been scrapped by the same Hasina government in 2018. The quotas were sweeping, providing 30% of jobs for children of ‘martyrs’ or those who had lost their lives in the Bangladeshi independence movement of 1971, 10% for backward districts, 10% for women, 5% for ethnic minorities, and 1% for those living with disabilities. Only 44% of jobs remained for open competition.
Students began to protest the quotas, saying that the system left less than half of government jobs open to merit-based selection. Like in Nepal, Bangladeshi youth too prefer government jobs to those in the private sector, citing low pay, job uncertainty, lack of pensions, and high workloads. With these jobs now limited, students shut down universities and embarked on protests that were largely peaceful. In response, the Hasina government ordered a brutal police crackdown, and Hasina herself called the protestors ‘razakar’, a deeply offensive term that refers to those who collaborated with Pakistan during the 1971 independence movement, akin to the French collaborateur.
On July 1, the protests stepped up and were met with fierce crackdowns from the police and the student wing of Hasina’s Awami League political party. Over 100 students were killed, and thousands were arrested by the end of the month. Students responded by rioting. The internet was cut off, and a nationwide curfew was put in place. The police meanwhile continued to brutalize student protestors, firing into the crowds, striking them with vehicles, and leaving them to die on the streets. Thousands of Nepalis in Bangladesh, most of whom were studying medicine there, returned home in the wake of the violence.
With protests continuing, the Supreme Court, on July 21, rolled back all the quotas, leaving only 5% for the children of martyrs and 2% for ethnic minorities, transgenders, and people living with disabilities. The students welcomed the decision but demanded a public apology from Hasina for the razakar comment and for the thousands arrested to be released. Protests continued, as did police and military excesses. On August 4, protestors gathered in Dhaka to call for Hasina’s resignation were shot at by the police and military, killing over 100 in a single day. Then, on August 5, as protestors called for mass mobilization, the military asked Hasina to resign and leave the country, saying it would be unable to ensure her safety in the face of thousands of protestors. Hasina duly resigned and fled to India.
I can’t help but see echoes of the second Jana Andolan in how things have unfolded. Nepal’s second Jana Andolan also saw a mass mobilization of students and people from all walks of life protesting against then-king Gyanendra Shah’s dictatorial ambitions. Like Hasina, Shah too tried to placate the protests by reinstating parliament, but protestors were in no mood for empty promises. Protests continued, and Shah was forced to resign. He did not leave the country but was ousted from his palace. After Shah’s final press conference, journalists jostled with each other to sit on Shah’s vacated throne, just like how Bangladeshi protestors stormed Hasina’s residence, ate her food, paraded her clothing, and even stole a giant fish in a quintessentially Bengali move.
There are already murmurs among the Nepali public that our politicians could face Hasina’s fate if they do not mend their ways. Public dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties is high, and it often feels like a spark is all that’s needed for kindling to burst into a full-blown blaze. Nepal’s ruling class should learn from Hasina’s mistakes. Although she presided over record surges in Bangladesh’s economy, she was an authoritarian ruler who cracked down on free speech and dissent, even forcing the chief justice of the Supreme Court to flee the country after he opposed her. She gave free rein to the Rapid Action Battalion, a paramilitary force accused of human rights abuses. She was also nepotistic, lobbying heavily to install her daughter Saima Wazed as regional director for the World Health Organization’s Southeast Asia region.
Nepali politicians aren’t as brutal as Hasina, but they are callous in their treatment of the public and extremely corrupt and nepotistic. They have to know that their time is limited and that they cannot continue as they have forever. The economy is in the doldrums; jobs are scarce; and almost half the population has either left the country or is looking for ways to get out. Things must change. If not, there could very well be a reckoning like that of Sheikh Hasina.
What will happen now to the power trade agreement that Nepal was going to sign with Bangladesh and India, who knows?
An end in sight for Nepal’s transitional justice process?
On Wednesday, a cross-party task force from the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist Centre presented its report on transitional justice to the chiefs of all three parties. The task force was constituted to find a meeting point for all the major parties on amendments to the Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act after conflict victims and some members of the political parties had issues with planned amendments. Transitional justice in Nepal is led by two commissions — the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commissions to Investigate Enforced Disappearances, both of which are currently without any members due to a failure to amend the Act. Transitional justice remains the final objective of the peace process that began in 2006 and marked the official end to the decade-long civil conflict.
The task force has now recommended that rape and serious cases of sexual violence, arbitrary murder, enforced disappearances, and inhumane or cruel torture should be listed as “serious violations of human rights” and, thus, are not eligible for amnesty. All other incidents are eligible for amnesty and reconciliation between victim and perpetrator. Conflict victims had long protested the parties’ refusal to include arbitrary murder as a serious violation of human rights and not eligible for amnesty, so the task force’s recommendation should satisfy them. The task force, however, has not made any recommendations on the issue of child soldiers, which was also another demand of conflict victims.
The three chiefs of the major political parties — Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of the UML, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Congress, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists — have agreed to pass amendments to the transitional justice act based on the recommendations of the task force. These promises, however, have been made before and it remains to be seen if conflict victims, the primary stakeholders of the transitional justice process, will be satisfied with the recommendations of the task force. In the end, it really doesn’t matter if the parties agree, but the victims don’t. Transitional justice should be about healing the wounds of the conflict, whether that be through criminal prosecution, reparations, reconciliation, or amnesty. It should be up to the victims, not politicians, who were the ones inflicting those wounds in the first place. Still, it is a step forward to see that KP Sharma Oli has also committed to amendments. In the past, Oli has often played spoilsport, holding the transitional justice act as a bargaining chip over the Congress and especially the Maoists, as these latter two were direct parties to the civil conflict while the UML was largely out of the fray.
Here’s to hoping that transitional justice will be ensured for the victims and that Nepal’s decades-long peace process, which started in 2006, can finally be put to rest, 18 years later.
When it rains, it pours
On Monday, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology’s Meteorological Forecasting Division issued a ‘red notice’ warning of heavy rainfall across the country. As predicted, rains began Monday evening and continued throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday. Parts of Kathmandu received more than 100mm of rainfall on Tuesday, leading many of the city’s rivers to overflow their banks and flood the streets. Outside the Kathmandu Valley, things were much worse. At least 14 people are believed to have died in floods and landslides triggered by the heavy rain. Another dozen were injured, and at least four are missing. Hundreds of homes and property were destroyed and numerous families displaced.
Every year, the monsoon brings life and death to Nepal. Without the rains, we’d have no agriculture and no hydropower. But even with the rains, every year, hundreds of people die. This year, since June, 154 people have already died from monsoon-related incidents, and over 4,200 families have been displaced. There is little the government can do to prevent these disasters as they are the result of decades of mismanagement and lack of planning. Homes built on or next to unstable slopes and on the banks of rivers invite disasters. The best that the Nepal government can do now is to institute early warning systems and get people to vacate. That will save lives but not property. As with most things in Nepal, things are so far gone now that it is difficult to see a way out.
So it goes.
The deep dive: How many crashes are too many?
Image: Pradeep Adhikari, director-general of CAAN, who has overseen five fatal airplane and helicopter crashes since taking charge.
Two weeks after the Saurya Air crash that killed 18 people, on Wednesday, an Air Dynasty helicopter crashed, killing all five — four Chinese nationals and one Nepali pilot — on board. The chopper was taking the four Chinese nationals to Syaprubesi in Rasuwa district, where they would cross over to China. The chopper would then bring back four Americans who had completed the Kailash-Mansarovar trek to Kathmandu.
Although Wednesday was partly cloudy and rainy, the weather was clear at Kathmandu airport when the Air Dynasty helicopter took off. But two minutes later, the airport lost touch with the helicopter and crashed on a hillside 11 kilometers north of Kathmandu in Nuwakot district’s Suryachaur. Reports surmise that the weather could’ve changed rapidly around the Shivapuri hills, leading to fog and reduced visibility. There’s not much information out on what exactly led to the crash but many believe it is inclement weather.
For further context, Air Dynasty is one of the oldest helicopter companies in Nepal. It was owned by Ang Tshering Sherpa, who also owned and operated Yeti Airlines, which has a very spotty safety record. Most recently, a Yeti Airlines plane crashed in 2023 when attempting to land at Pokhara International Airport, killing all 72 on board. Sherpa was a powerful businessman with close connections to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Sherpa himself died in an Air Dynasty helicopter crash in 2019, alongside then Tourism Minister Rabindra Adhikari.
Two fatal crashes in a month. How many is too many? Over two dozen, including five foreigners, dead. International headlines. And yet, the man responsible for overseeing the entire civil aviation sector, Director-General Pradeep Adhikari of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal, brushes off all criticism and mocks Members of Parliament who’ve called on him to take responsibility and resign, saying haughtily, “A lion doesn’t care about a challenge issued by donkeys; even if he wins, he is shamed.”
Whatever the reason behind these two fatal crashes, Adhikari must resign. Even if the crashes were due to ‘acts of God’, he must still resign. Any real leader would’ve resigned in shame after a single crash. Adhikari has overseen eight crashes since he took charge of CAAN; five of them have been fatal. But instead of stepping up and taking responsibility, he belittles those who criticize him and leaves everything to god by performing a puja at Pashupati, Nepal’s version of ‘thoughts and prayers’. Adhikari can act this way because he feels safe. He is protected by his political masters, who seem to come from across the political spectrum. Adhikari has managed to win over almost every Civil Aviation Minister since he was appointed director-general in 2022. The Ministry of Culture, Tourism, and Civil Aviation oversees CAAN, and since his appointment, Adhikari has cultivated close relationships with ministers Prem Ale (Unified Socialists, October 2021-June 2022), Jeevan Ram Shrestha (Unified Socialists, June 2022-December 2022), and currently, Badri Pandey (Nepali Congress), who has been strangely quiet despite the two crashes under his watch.
The only minister who gave Adhikari any trouble was Sudan Kirati of the Maoists, who was Minister for Culture, Tourism, and Civil Aviation from January 2023 to March 2024. In June 2023, Minister Kirati sought clarification from Adhikari regarding, at the time, two plane and three helicopter crashes. He also demanded to know why Adhikari was publicly claiming that CAAN would not be split into two separate bodies despite the then government’s official policies and programs stating that it would. Adhikari defiantly refused to answer Kirati, claiming instead that CAAN was an autonomous body and didn’t answer to anyone. He further said that he would not respond to Kirati since he had been appointed by the Cabinet, not Kirati. A week later, Kirati sent a second letter, threatening legal action if Adhikari continued to defy him. Adhikari then issued a statement of his own, accusing Kirati of creating a “conflict of interest in the civil aviation sector”. Neither side relented until then Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal himself stepped in. After Dahal’s intervention, both Adhikari and Kirati agreed to bury the hatchet and work together.
Kirati, however, was right and should not have been made to shake hands with Adhikari. As Minister for Civil Aviation, it was his prerogative to ask for clarifications from the director-general of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal. His questions too were legitimate. Despite the government pledging to introduce legislation that would split CAAN into a service provider and a regulatory authority, Adhikari had consistently opposed the legislation and lobbied to block it. Bills to split CAAN into two — the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal bill and the Air Service Authority of Nepal bill — were unanimously passed by the National Assembly in 2021, and yet, three years later, they have yet to be passed by the House of Representatives, partly due to Adhikari’s lobbying.
The European Commission has placed all Nepali airlines certified by CAAN on a ‘blacklist’ preventing these airlines from flying into European airspace since 2013. For more context on this blacklist, read my newsletter from two weeks ago regarding the Saurya Air crash:
Adhikari, however, has maintained that all safety issues have been resolved and that there is no reason for Nepal to continue to be placed on this blacklist. He claims that neither the European Commission nor the International Civil Aviation Organization, the UN’s aviation watchdog, have asked CAAN to be split into two. On that note, he is right, but only technically. The EC and ICAO have both asked for a “functional division,” meaning that there cannot be one single authority acting as both service provider and regulator. Whether this can be done by splitting CAAN into two bodies or instituting legal and operational divisions within CAAN itself is up to the Nepal government. The point is that two functionally separate entities should be performing the two roles. The government has made this decision and it has decided to split CAAN into two.
Adhikari cannot continue as director-general of CAAN. With the very first crash, he lost all moral ground. Now, eight crashes later, he doesn’t have an inch of earth to stand on. He is only able to weather all the criticism and defiantly challenge elected representatives because he has no public constituency of his own. He is not an elected representative accountable to his voters. He is a bureaucrat whose only masters are the people who appointed him and continue to shield him despite everything that has happened.
But maybe his days are numbered. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is reportedly very displeased with Adhikari, given his multiple failures. But instead of removing Adhikari, which Oli certainly has the power to do, the prime minister is acting like a petulant child. He has allegedly barred Adhikari from entering the prime minister’s office in Baluwatar, but that hasn’t stopped Adhikari from visiting. Oli, however, has refused to meet with or talk to him. There are reportedly murmurs within the Nepali Congress too about removing Adhikari. Member of Parliament Udaya Shumsher Rana has been leading the charge against Adhikari.
If you ask me, those pending bills will never see the light of day as long as Adhikari remains at the top of CAAN. Even if they are passed, they will be watered down, and Adhikari will likely retain his very lucrative and very powerful position. If the Oli government is at all serious about ensuring safety for the thousands of Nepalis and foreigners who fly in Nepal’s unsafe skies, it must, even if just in a show of faith, first remove Adhikari as director-general of CAAN.
That’s all for this week. I will be back next Friday, in your emails, for the next edition of KALAM Weekly.
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